워렌 버핏: 다음 7가지 규칙만 알면 된다 :: ChatGPT 정리

> English Summary

> English Full Text

Warren Buffett: You Only Need To Know These 7 Rules
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63oF8BOMMB8 

 

 

[ 요약 ]

워렌 버핏은 역사상 가장 위대한 투자자 중 하나이며, 1,000달러를 그의 투자 회사에 투자했다면 오늘날 3,000만 달러 이상의 가치가 되었을 것입니다. 이러한 성과는 버핏이 이해하지 못하는 것을 이해하고, 몇 가지 핵심 원칙을 고수하며 일상 생활에서 실행함으로써 이루어졌습니다. 세 가지 기준은 지능, 주도성, 에너지와 성실성입니다. 투자자들은 강세장에서 매우 흥분하면 백미러를 보면서 행동합니다. 벤 그레이엄의 양적 기준과 주식의 시가 엉덩이 접근 방식을 배웠으며, 공정한 가격에 멋진 사업을 사는 것보다 구식 믿음을 가지고 공정한 가격에 공정한 사업을 사는 것이 더 나은 것으로 믿습니다.

제품의 기능보다는 사업의 경제성을 파악하고, 능력 범위 안에서 큰 기회를 잡아야 한다는 것이 핵심입니다. 엄한 선택으로 놓친 기회와 누락의 실수를 언급하며, 큰 실수를 하지 않으려면 어떤 일을 할지 결정할 때 꼭 자신의 능력 범위를 고려해야 한다는 것을 강조합니다. 금전적인 보금자리보다는 가치 있는 관계를 유지하는 것이 더 중요하며, 자금 부족 시 다른 접근 방식을 가질 수 있다는 점도 기억해야 합니다.

우리는 내재 가치를 기준으로 사업을 평가해야 하며, 현금을 마련하고 더 많은 돈을 벌기 위한 기회를 잡아야 합니다. 나는 여전히 사업 전체를 사는 것이 좋다고 생각하며, 분배 능력이 높은 회사를 선호합니다. 사업의 내재 가치를 계산하고 현금 흐름을 파악하는 것이 중요하며, 그것이 가능하지 않다면 주식 투자를 하지 말아야 합니다.

7가지 규칙.

1. 직원을 채용할 때 지능, 주도성, 성실성을 살펴봅니다.
2. 과거의 성과와 시장의 과대광고에 근거한 투자를 피하세요.
3. 정량적 분석을 기반으로 저평가된 주식을 매수하되, '시가 엉덩이' 접근 방식은 피합니다.
4. 좋은 가격에 좋은 기업보다는 공정한 가격에 좋은 기업에 투자합니다.
5. 자신이 이해하고 자신의 역량 범위 내에 있는 분야에 투자하세요.
6. 자신의 역량 범위 내의 기회에 대해 조치를 취함으로써 누락의 실수를 피하십시오.
7. 단기적인 시장 동향보다는 장기적인 경제 잠재력에 집중하세요.

'시가 엉덩이' 접근은 주식 시장에서 비싼 주식을 사는 것이 아니라, 시가총액 대비 저평가된 기업의 주식을 매수하는 전략입니다. 이 전략은 기업의 잠재력과 가치를 분석하여 저평가된 기업을 찾아내고, 그 기업의 주식을 매수하여 기다리는 것을 의미합니다. 이는 가치투자의 일종으로, 기업의 장기적인 가치를 인식하고 그것을 가격으로 산정하여 매수하는 전략입니다.

 

 

반응형

[ 한글 전체 ]

워렌 버핏은 역사상 가장 위대한 투자자입니다. 만약 당신이 그의 투자 회사에 1,000달러를 투자했다면
회사에 1,000달러를 투자했다면 오늘날 그 가치는 3,000만 달러가 넘을 것입니다. 이러한 수익률은 비현실적으로 보일 수 있습니다,
하지만 버핏은 실제로 어떻게 이런 성과를 거둘 수 있었을까요? 그 해답은 대부분의 사람들이 이해하지 못하는 것을 이해하고
그리고 일상 생활에서 실행할 수 있는 몇 가지 핵심 원칙을 고수하고 있기 때문입니다.
이 동영상이 끝날 때까지 계속 시청하시면 이 모든 것을 배우실 수 있습니다.
우리는 사람을 채용할 때 세 가지를 봅니다. 지능, 주도성, 에너지.
에너지, 그리고 성실성을 봅니다. 후자가 없으면 앞의 두 가지가 당신을 죽일 것입니다,
성실성이 없는 사람을 뽑으려면 게으르고 멍청한 사람을 원하겠죠.
똑똑하고 활기찬 사람은 원하지 않을 것입니다. 답은 투자자들이 매우 인간적인 방식으로 행동한다는 것입니다.
즉, 강세장에서는 매우 흥분하고 백미러를 보면서
백미러를 보며 "작년에 돈을 벌었어. 올해는 더 많은 돈을 벌 수 있을 거야, 그래서 이번에는
빌릴게요, 아니면 이웃이 말하길, 작년에 저 이웃이 나보다 멍청했을 때는 안 그랬어요,
내가 돈을 많이 벌었으니 올해는 들어갈거야. 그래서 그들은 항상 백미러를 보고 있습니다.
백미러를 보면 지난 몇 년 동안 많은 돈을 벌었다는 것을 알면
지난 몇 년 동안 그들은 쟁기질하고 가격을 밀고 밀고 밀고 밀고 밀고, 그리고 그들이
백미러를 보면 돈이 벌어지지 않은 것을보고, 그들은 단지 여기가 형편없는 곳이라고 말합니다.
그래서 그들은 기본 비즈니스에서 무슨 일이 일어나고 있는지 신경 쓰지 않고 놀랍습니다,
하지만 그것은 엄청난 기회입니다. 엄청난 기회입니다. 저는 벤 그레이엄에게 배웠습니다.
양적 기준으로 물건을 사고, 저렴한 물건을 찾아보라고 배웠습니다.
1940년, 1950년에 저에게 큰 인상을 남겼기 때문에 저는 소위 말하는
주식의 시가 꽁초, 그리고 주식을 사는 시가 꽁초 접근 방식은 당신이 걸어가는 것입니다.
길을 걸으며 시가 꽁초를 찾고 있는데 솔직히 끔찍한 것을 발견했습니다.
축축하고 추악 해 보이는 시가 꽁초, 한 퍼프가 남아 있지만 집어 들면
한 개비, 역겨워서 버리지만 공짜잖아요, 싸잖아요, 그리고 주위를 둘러보죠
한 개비 더 피우려고 주위를 둘러보죠 담배 꽁초, 그게 제가 몇 년 동안 한 일이에요, 실수예요
돈은 벌지만 큰돈으로 벌 수는 없으니까요
그래서 지금은 공정한 가격에 공정한 가격에 멋진 사업을 사는 것보다
공정한 가격에 공정한 사업보다, 하지만 저는 제가 할 수 있다는 구식 믿음이 있습니다.
내가 이해하는 것, 그리고 내가 이해한다고 말할 때만 돈을 벌기를 기대해야합니다,
제품의 기능이나 그런 걸 이해한다는 뜻이 아니라
사업의 경제성이 10년 후나 20년 후에 어떻게 될지 이해한다는 뜻입니다.
예를 들어 리들리 츄잉껌의 10년 후 경제성은 어떻게 될지 알지만
인터넷이 껌을 씹는 방식을 바꾸진 않겠지만 어떤 껌을 씹는지는 변하지 않을 겁니다
어떤 껌을 씹는지, 알다시피 껌 시장을 크게 장악하고 있다면
더블 민트, 스피어민트, 과즙이 많은 과일, 그 브랜드는 지금부터 10 년 후에도 거기에있을 것이므로 정확히 숫자를 정확히 파악할 수 없습니다.
리들리에서 숫자가 어떻게 될지 정확히 파악할 수는 없지만
내가 그런 것을 기대하려고 노력한다면 그 회사를 평가하는 것이 내 능력 범위 내에 있다는 것입니다.
내 역량 범위라고 부르는 것, 그들이하는 일을 이해하고, 경제성을 이해하고, 비즈니스의 경쟁 측면을 이해합니다.
비즈니스의 경쟁적인 측면을 이해하지만 우리가 저지른 가장 큰 실수는 지금까지 우리가 저지른 것이 아닙니다,
우리가 저지른 실수가 아니라 내가 저지른 가장 큰 실수는 누락의 실수입니다.
제가 충분히 할 수 있는 일이었고 제 능력 범위 안에 있는 일들이었는데
엄지손가락을 빨고 있었는데 그게 진짜 아픈 실수였어요
예를 들어 20년 전이나 거의 20년 전에 엄지 손가락을 빨아서
20년 전에 제 엄지손가락을 빨았거나 패니 매가 문제가 있었을 때, 그리고 우리는
거의 아무것도 없이 회사를 통째로 샀고, 마이크로소프트라면 걱정하지 않아요,
왜냐하면 마이크로소프트는 제 능력 범위 안에 있지 않으니까요.
마이크로소프트나 코코아 콩으로 돈을 벌 자격이 있다고 생각할 이유가 없으니까요,
하지만 패니매를 이해할 만큼은 알았고, 제가 망쳤어요.
전통적인 회계이지만 그 비용을 알고 있고, 알고 있고, 알고 있고, 그것을 전달했습니다.
크고 큰 실수를 많이 저질렀고, 연례 보고서에서 말하지 않는 한
연례 보고서, 그리고 나는 때때로 유혹에 저항하고, 내가 그들에 대해 말했듯이
연례 보고서에는 기존 회계에 표시되지 않기 때문에 알 수 없습니다.
하지만 모든 사명은 커미션보다 훨씬 크고 인생에 큰 기회가 있습니다.
잡아야합니다. 우리는 많은 일을하지 않지만 옳고 큰 일을 할 기회가있을 때
옳고 큰 일을 할 수 있다면 해야 하고, 작은 규모로 하는 것도 큰 실수예요
아예 하지 않는 것만큼이나 큰 실수입니다. 기회가 왔을 때 꼭 잡아야 합니다,
500 개의 좋은 기회를 얻지 못할 것입니다. 당신이 학교를 졸업했을 때
여기 학교를 졸업하면 20 개의 펀치 카드가 있고 모든 큰 재정적, 재정적 결정은
결정할 때마다 펀치를 다 써버리고 부자가 되는 게 더 나을 거예요
칵테일 파티에 갔는데 어떤 사람이 회사 얘기를 하면
그들이 무엇을했는지 이해하지 못하거나 이름을 발음 할 수 없었지만 지난주에 돈을 벌었고
이와 같은 또 다른 카드는 카드에 20 개의 펀치 만 있으면 구매하지 않을 것입니다.
전적으로 소유 한 비즈니스, 우리는 누가이 양식을 아무리 많이 제공하더라도 판매하지 않을 것입니다,
누군가 가치의 세 배를 제시하면 버팔로 뉴스는 사탕으로 간주합니다,
보쉬하임, 그게 뭐든 간에 우리는 팔지 않을 겁니다. 제가 그런 접근 방식을 취하는 게 틀릴 수도 있습니다,
제가 버크셔를 100% 소유해도 틀리지 않다는 걸 알아요. 그게 제가 원하는 삶이기 때문이죠,
내 부고기사에 실릴 신문기사 한 줄만 바꿔도
내 부고 기사와 재단이 가진 돈, 그리고 내가 좋아하는 사람들과의 관계도 끊고
영구적인 보금자리라고 생각해서 저와 함께한 사람들과의 관계도 끊어야 해요
누군가 저에게 큰 수표를 흔들기 때문에 제 자식 중 하나를 파는 것과 같을 것입니다.
누군가 큰 수표를 흔들기 때문에 그렇게하지 않을 것이고 파트너들에게 그렇게하지 않겠다고 말하고 싶습니다.
그들은 나를 실망시키지 않고 점점 더 많은 특정 주식에 대해 우리가 그 접근 방식을 가지고 있습니다.
만성적으로 자금이 부족하고 모든 종류의 기회가 다가오고 있다면 우리는 다소 다른 접근 방식을 가질 수 있습니다.
다른 접근 방식이지만 우리의 성향은 우리가 정말 낙담하지 않는 한 물건을 팔지 않는 것입니다.
아마도 경영진과 함께 또는 우리는 사업의 경제적 특성이 크게 변한다고 생각합니다.
내 말은 그런 일이 일어나기 때문에 우리는 단순히 너무 높아 보인다고해서 팔지 않을 것입니다.
팔지 않을 것입니다. 이제 여기로 가보겠습니다. 안녕하세요 버핏 씨, 두 가지 짧은 질문이 있습니다,
하나는 기업에서 내재 가치를 어떻게 찾습니까? 내재적 가치는 우리가 모두 알고 있다면
미래에 대해 모두 알고 있고 기업이 지금과 판단 사이에 벌어들일 수 있는
지금부터 심판의 날까지 적절한 할인율로 할인된 금액입니다, 그
그 숫자는 비즈니스의 본질적인 가치, 즉 우리가 지금 투자하고 돈을 마련하는 유일한 이유입니다.
투자하고 지금 돈을 마련하는 유일한 이유는 나중에 더 많은 돈을 벌기 위해서입니다.
모든 것입니다. 이제 채권을 보면 미국 정부가 매우 쉽게
당신이 무엇을 돌려받을 것인지 말하기 위해 채권에 바로 표시되어 있습니다.
이자 지급, 원금을받을 때 표시되므로 채권의 가치를 파악하는 것은 매우 쉽습니다.
채권의 가치는 이자율이 변하면 내일 바뀔 수 있지만 현금 흐름은
현금 흐름은 채권에 인쇄되어 있고, 현금 흐름은 주식 증서에 인쇄되어 있지 않습니다.
분석가의 임무는 인쇄하고, 비즈니스에 대한 관심을 나타내는 주권을 변경하는 것입니다.
사업과 그것을 채권으로 바꾸고 이것이 미래에 지불 할 것으로 생각되는 것이라고 말합니다.
쇼가 카펫을 만들기 위해 새 기계를 살 때 당연히 그렇게 생각하죠
여러분 모두 비즈니스 스쿨에서 배우지만 대기업도 마찬가지입니다.
오늘날 코카콜라는 시장에서 약 110 ~ 150 억 달러에 판매되고 있습니다.
110 억 달러 또는 150 억 달러가 있다면 제 말을 듣지 않고 당신의 말을 듣겠습니다.
우연히도 문제는 코카콜라 회사가 향후 몇 년 동안 제공 할 것을 얻기 위해 오늘 그것을 배치 할 것이냐는 것입니다.
향후 200 ~ 300 년 동안 여러분에게 제공 할 할인율은
당신이 더 멀어 질수록 큰 차이를 만들지 만 그것은 얼마나 많은 현금을 줄 것인지에 대한 질문입니다.
그들이 당신에게 줄 것입니다, 당신이 아는 질문은 얼마나 많은 질문에 대한 질문이 아닙니다.
애널리스트가 추천 할 것인지 또는 주식의 거래량이나 차트가 어떻게 생겼는지에 대한 질문이 아닙니다.
얼마나 많은 현금을 줄 것인가의 문제입니다. 그게 유일한 이유입니다.
농장을 사면 사실이고, 아파트를 사면 사실이고, 모든 금융 자산을 사면 사실입니다.
나중에 더 많은 현금을 돌려 받기 위해 지금 현금을 마련하고있는 자산 오일과 질문은
얼마나 많이 얻을 수 있는지, 언제 얻을 수 있는지, 그리고 얼마나 확신 할 수 있는지입니다.
우리가 사업을 구매할 때 사업의 내재 가치를 계산할 때와 우리가 구매할 때
사업 전체를 사든 일부만 사든 저는 항상 사업 전체를 산다고 생각합니다.
그게 제 접근 방식이기 때문에 저는 이 비즈니스를 보고 이 비즈니스에서 무엇이 나올 것인지
그리고 언제, 그리고 당신이 정말 좋아하는 것은 그들이 번 돈을 사용할 수 있고
버크셔는 주주들에게 아무것도 배분한 적이 없습니다.
주주들에게 배당을 한 적이 없지만 우리가 소유 한 사업의 가치가 증가함에 따라 배분 능력이 증가합니다.
내부적으로 복리 효과를 낼 수 있지만 진짜 문제는 버크셔가 매각할 때
지금 1,500억 정도라고 가정하면 그 1,500억에서 무엇을 분배 할 수 있고
지금 회사 전체를 1,500 억에 사려고한다면, 우리가 충분히 분배 할 수 있습니까?
현재 금리에서 그 현금을 지금 당장 배치 할 수있을만큼 충분히 빨리 현금을 분배 할 수 있습니까?
그게 핵심이고 그 질문에 답할 수 없다면 주식을 살 수 없습니다.
원한다면 주식에 도박을 할 수 있거나 이웃이 살 수 있다는 것을 알고 있지만
그 질문에 대답하지 않으면 예를 들어 인터넷 회사에 대해 대답 할 수 없습니다.
제가 대답 할 수없는 모든 종류의 회사가 많이 있지만 그냥 우리로부터 멀리 떨어져 있습니다.

 

SMALL

[ English Summary ]

Warren Buffett is one of the greatest investors of all time, and if you had invested $1,000 in his investment company, it would be worth more than $30 million today. Buffett achieved this by understanding what others don't, adhering to a few key principles, and practicing them in his daily life. These are intelligence, initiative, energy, and integrity. When investors get very excited in a bull market, they act while looking in the rearview mirror. I learned Ben Graham's quantitative criteria and the market ass approach to stocks, and I believe it is better to buy a fair business at a fair price with old-fashioned faith than to buy a great business at a great price.

It's all about understanding the economics of the business rather than the features of the product, and taking big opportunities within your means. He mentions missed opportunities and mistakes of omission due to tough choices, and emphasizes that to avoid making big mistakes, you must consider your ability range when deciding what to do. It's also important to remember that it's more important to have valuable relationships than a financial nest egg, and that we might have a different approach if we're short on funds.

We need to evaluate the business based on its intrinsic value and take the opportunity to raise cash and make more money. I still believe in buying the whole business, and I prefer companies with a high distribution capacity. It's important to calculate the intrinsic value of a business and understand its cash flow, and if you can't do that, you shouldn't make an equity investment.

Seven rules.

1. When hiring employees, look for intelligence, initiative, and integrity.
2. Avoid investing based on past performance and market hype.
3. Buy undervalued stocks based on quantitative analysis, but avoid the "cigar butt" approach.
4. Invest in good companies at fair prices rather than good companies at great prices.
5. Invest in sectors that you understand and are within your capabilities.
6. Avoid the mistake of omission by taking action on opportunities that are within your capabilities.
7. Focus on long-term economic potential rather than short-term market trends.

The "cigar butt" approach is a strategy that involves buying shares of companies that are undervalued relative to their market capitalization, rather than buying overpriced stocks in the stock market. This strategy involves analyzing a company's potential and value to find undervalued companies, buying shares of those companies, and waiting. It's a type of value investing, a strategy that recognizes and prices in the long-term value of a company.

[ English Full Text ]

Warren Buffett is the greatest investor of all time. If you had put $1,000 into his investment
company when it started, it would be worth over $30 million today. Such returns can seem unrealistic,
but how did Buffett actually do it? The answer is, he understands what most people don't,
and is sticking to a few key principles that you can implement in your everyday life.
Keep watching, because by the end of this video, you will learn all of them.
We look for three things when we hire people. We look for intelligence, we look for initiative or
energy, and we look for integrity. And if they don't have the latter, the first two will kill you,
because if you're going to get somebody without integrity, you want them lazy and dumb.
You don't want them smart and energetic. The answer is that investors behave in very human
ways, which is they get very excited during bull markets, and they look in the rearview
mirror, and they say, I made money last year. I'm going to make more money this year, so this time
I'll borrow, or the neighbor says, I wasn't in last year when that neighbor was dumber than I,
I made a lot of money, so I'm going to go in this year. So they're always looking in the rearview
mirror, and when they look in the rearview mirror and they see a lot of money having been made in
the last few years, they plow in and they just push and push and push on prices, and when they
look in the rearview mirror and they see no money having been made, they just say, this is a lousy
place to be, so they don't care what's going on in the underlying business, and it's astounding,
but that makes for a huge opportunity, just huge opportunity. I've been taught by Ben Graham
to buy things on a quantitative basis, look around for things that are cheap, and that, I was taught
that, say, in 1940, 1950, they made a big impression on me, so I went around looking for what I call
you cigar butts of stocks, and the cigar butt approach to buying stocks is that you walk down
the street and you're looking around for cigar butts, and you find this, honestly, this terrible
looking soggy, ugly, looking cigar butt, one puff left in it, but you pick it up and you get your
one puff, disgusting, you throw it away, but it's free, I mean it's cheap, and then you look around
for another soggy, you know, one puff, cigar butt, well that's what I did for years, it's a mistake,
although you make money doing it, but you can't make it with big money, it's so much easier just
to buy wonderful businesses, so now I would rather buy a wonderful business at a fair price
than a fair business at a wonderful price, but I have an old-fashioned belief that I can
only, should expect to make money in things that I understand, and when I say understand,
I don't mean understand, you know, what the product does or anything like that, I mean understand
what the economics of the business are likely to look at, look like 10 years from now or 20 years
from now, I know in general what the economics of, say, Ridley chewing gum will look like 10 years
from now, the internet isn't going to change the way people chew gum, it isn't going to change
which gum they chew, you know, if you own the chewing gum market in a big way, and you've got
double mint and spearmint and juicy fruit, those brands will be there 10 years from now, so I can't
pinpoint exactly what the numbers are going to look like on Ridley, but I'm not going to be way
off if I try to look forward on something like that, that evaluating that company is within what I
call my circle of competence, I understand what they do, I understand the economics of it, I
understand the competitive aspects of the business, but the biggest mistakes we've made by far,
I've made, not we've made, biggest mistakes I've made by far are mistakes of omission and not
comission, I mean it's the things I knew enough to do, they were within my circle of competence,
and I was sucking my thumb, and that is really, those are the ones that hurt, they don't show
up any place, I probably cost Berkshire at least five billion dollars, for example, by sucking
my thumb 20 years ago or close to one Fannie Mae was having some troubles, and we got to
bought the whole company for practically nothing, and I don't worry about that if it's Microsoft,
because I don't know it, because Microsoft isn't in my circle of competence, so I don't have any
reason to think I'm entitled to make money out of Microsoft or out of cocoa beans or whatever,
but I did know enough to understand Fannie Mae and I blew it, and that never shows up under
conventional accounting, but I know the cost of it, I know, I know, I passed it up, and those are
the big, big mistakes, and I've had plenty of them, and unless I tell you about them in the
annual report, and I resist the temptation sometimes, and as I tell you about them in
the annual report, you're not going to know it because it doesn't show up under conventional
accounting, but all mission is way bigger than commission, there's big opportunities in life
have to be seized, we don't do very many things, but when we get the chance to do something that's
right and big, we've got to do it, and even to do it in a small scale is just as big a mistake
almost as not doing it at all, I mean, you've really got to grab it when they come, because they,
you're not going to get 500 great opportunities, you would be better off if when you got out of
school here, you got a punch card with 20 punches on it, and every big financial, every financial
decision you made, you used up a punch, you get very rich because you'd think through very hard
each one, I mean, you went to a cocktail party and somebody talked about a company, he didn't
even understand what they did or couldn't pronounce the name, but they made some money last week and
another one like it, you wouldn't buy it if you only had 20 punches on that card, in terms of our
wholly owned businesses, we're not going to sell no matter how much anybody offers this form, I mean,
if somebody offers us three times what something is worth, it sees candy, the Buffalo News,
Borschheims, whatever it may be, we're not going to sell it, I may be wrong in having that approach,
I know I'm not wrong if I own 100% of Berkshire because that's the way I want to live my life,
I've got all the money I could possibly need, just amounts to a change in the newspaper story on my
obituary and the amount of money the foundation has, and to break off relationships with people I like
and people that have joined me because they think it's a permanent home, to do that simply
because somebody waves a big check at me, it would be like selling one of my children because
somebody waves a big check, so I won't do that and I want to tell my partners I won't do it so that
they're not disappointed me, more and more with certain stocks we've got that approach, now if
we were chronically short of funds and all kinds of opportunities coming we might have a somewhat
different approach but our inclination is not to sell things unless we get really discouraged
perhaps with the management or we think the economic characteristics of the business change in a big
way, I mean and that happens, so but we're not going to sell simply because it looks too high
in all likelihood, so now let's go over here. Hello Mr. Buffett, I got two short questions,
one is how do you find intrinsic value in a company? Well intrinsic value is what is the number
that if you were all knowing about the future and could predict all the cash that a business
would give you between now and judgment day, discounted at the proper discount rate, that
number is what the intrinsic value of business is, in other words the only reason for making
investment and laying out money now is to get more money later on, right, that's what investing is
all about. Now when you look at a bond, so it means the United States government is very easy
to tell what you're going to get back, it says it right on the bond, it says when you get the
interest payments, it says when you get the principal, so it's very easy to figure out the
value of a bond, it could change tomorrow if interest rates change but you are, the cash flows
are printed on the bond, the cash flows aren't printed on a stock certificate, that's the job
of the analyst is to print out, change that stock certificate which represents an interest in the
business and change that into a bond and say this is what I think it's going to pay out in the future
when we buy some new machine for Shaw to make carpet, that's what we're thinking about obviously
and you all learn that in business school but it's the same thing for a big business, if you buy
Coca-Cola today the company is selling for about $110 to $15 billion in the market, the question is
if you had $110 or $15 billion you wouldn't be listening to me but I'd be listening to you
incidentally but the question is would you lay it out today to get what the Coca-Cola company
is going to deliver to you over the next two or three hundred years, the discount rate doesn't
make much difference after as you get further out but and that is a question how much cash
they're going to give you, isn't the question of you know isn't the question about how many
analysts are going to recommend it or what the volume in the stock is or what the chart looks
like or anything, it's a question of how much cash it's going to give you, that's the only reason
it's the true if you're buying a farm, it's true if you're buying an apartment house, any financial
asset oil in the ground you're laying out cash now to get more cash back later on and the question
is is how much are you going to get, when are you going to get it and how sure are you and
when I calculate intrinsic value of a business when we buy businesses and whether we're buying
all of a business or a little piece of a business I always think we're buying the whole business
because that's my approach to it, I look at it and say what what will come out of this business
and when and what you really like of course is them to be able to use the money they earn
and earn higher returns on it as you go along, I mean Berkshire has never distributed anything to
its shareholders but its ability to distribute goes up as the value of the businesses we own
increases, we can compound it internally but the real question is Berkshire selling for
we'll say a hundred and five or so billion now, what can we distribute from that hundred and if
you're going to buy the whole company for a hundred and five billion now, can we distribute enough
cash to you soon enough to make it sensible at present interest rates to lay out that cash now
and that's that's what it gets down to and if you can't answer that question you can't buy the stock
you know you can you can gamble in the stock if you want to or your neighbors can buy it but if
you don't answer that question and I can't answer that for for internet companies for example
there are a lot of companies that are all kinds of companies I can't answer it for but I just stay away
from us